2024 US Election thread

[SouprMatt]

At the recent CPAC convention, they took a straw poll to see who should represent the GOP in the 2024 Presidential Election.

69% voted for Trump. Second place was DeSantis with 24%. Third place was Ted Cruz with 2%.

If Republican primary voters put Trump on the ballot in 2024, I think Biden (or whoever runs for the Democrats if he retires) will win.

Trump Wins CPAC Straw Poll, DeSantis Takes Second Place

A Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll conducted in Dallas on Saturday found that attendees favored former president Donald Trump -- who garnered the support of 69 percent of the audience -- to be the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Herdfan]

Let me be the first to say "I hope Trump doesn't run."

 

[lizkat]

Let me be the first to say "I hope Trump doesn't run."

You're definitely not alone among conservatives who think whatever they think about Trump's first term but who think the party should move on.

At the recent CPAC convention, they took a straw poll to see who should represent the GOP in the 2024 Presidential Election.

69% voted for Trump. Second place was DeSantis with 24%. Third place was Ted Cruz with 2%.

If Republican primary voters put Trump on the ballot in 2024, I think Biden (or whoever runs for the Democrats if he retires) will win.

Trump Wins CPAC Straw Poll, DeSantis Takes Second Place

A Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll conducted in Dallas on Saturday found that attendees favored former president Donald Trump -- who garnered the support of 69 percent of the audience -- to be the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee.

news.yahoo.com

Yeah it's time for the Republican National Committee to recover from the daft notion that CPAC represents the whole spectrum of its movers and shakers AND potential voter base. Going down that road much farther will end up carving off not only suburban Republican women but red-leaning indie moderates as well.

That process might have taken a bit longer if Roe v Wade hadn't been kicked to the curb, since even conservatives and right-leaning indies who were appalled at the 1/6 insurrection have seemed reluctant to make that their reason to shift left and consider policies touted by Democrats.

But SCOTUS finally deciding to take a really broad view of a state's abortion-related case in 2022, and so to overturn Roe v Wade, didn't do the Republican Party any favors.

I mean there are serious rumbles now from the medical profession about a brain drain of at least OB/GYN physicians from states with draconian anti-choice laws. That leaves hospitals with the undesirable situation of dependence on physicians with other specializations to fill in whenever medical emergencies related to pregnancies occur, and those hospitals and doctors then have to deal not only with a state's abortion law but the specter of higher rates of medical malpractice suits if "something goes wrong".

Abortion Restrictions Could Cause an Ob-Gyn Brain Drain

With Roe v. Wade overturned, banning abortion in many states could lead to a large number of ob-gyns avoiding practicing there or failing to receive crucial medical training

www.scientificamerican.com

Similarly there are concerns of mega-corporations about their health care coverage for employees in states that ban abortions. Some have guaranteed coverage for employees needing to travel out of state for pregnancy-related medical issues. Others have also expressed concerns about legal liability for doing that and are looking to Congress to protect their employees' freedom to travel freely across state lines for abortions that are legal in other states.

When a major political party starts running into balks from corporations in multiple economic sectors, that party is in deep trouble. So taking guidance from CPAC on their potential nominee for 2024 is not the GOP's only self-inflicted endangerment... the Roe decision may rank almost as high as "it's the economy, stupid" for right-leaners who are moderates on abortion choice, especially as the fed's rate hikes sink in a bit more, and if the employment rate does continue to hold up ok despite remaining inflationary pressures.

 

[Herdfan]

You're definitely not alone among conservatives who think whatever they think about Trump's first term but who think the party should move on.

He simply stirs up too much emotion from both sides. Picks fights he doesn't need to pick and keeps old ones going too long.

It will be interesting to see where history ranks him in 100 years when no one is around to remember his tone, but only has the results to look at.

 

[SouprMatt]

You're definitely not alone among conservatives who think whatever they think about Trump's first term but who think the party should move on.




Yeah it's time for the Republican National Committee to recover from the daft notion that CPAC represents the whole spectrum of its movers and shakers AND potential voter base. Going down that road much farther will end up carving off not only suburban Republican women but red-leaning indie moderates as well.

That process might have taken a bit longer if Roe v Wade hadn't been kicked to the curb, since even conservatives and right-leaning indies who were appalled at the 1/6 insurrection have seemed reluctant to make that their reason to shift left and consider policies touted by Democrats.

But SCOTUS finally deciding to take a really broad view of a state's abortion-related case in 2022, and so to overturn Roe v Wade, didn't do the Republican Party any favors.

I mean there are serious rumbles now from the medical profession about a brain drain of at least OB/GYN physicians from states with draconian anti-choice laws. That leaves hospitals with the undesirable situation of dependence on physicians with other specializations to fill in whenever medical emergencies related to pregnancies occur, and those hospitals and doctors then have to deal not only with a state's abortion law but the specter of higher rates of medical malpractice suits if "something goes wrong".

Abortion Restrictions Could Cause an Ob-Gyn Brain Drain

With Roe v. Wade overturned, banning abortion in many states could lead to a large number of ob-gyns avoiding practicing there or failing to receive crucial medical training

www.scientificamerican.com

Similarly there are concerns of mega-corporations about their health care coverage for employees in states that ban abortions. Some have guaranteed coverage for employees needing to travel out of state for pregnancy-related medical issues. Others have also expressed concerns about legal liability for doing that and are looking to Congress to protect their employees' freedom to travel freely across state lines for abortions that are legal in other states.

When a major political party starts running into balks from corporations in multiple economic sectors, that party is in deep trouble. So taking guidance from CPAC on their potential nominee for 2024 is not the GOP's only self-inflicted endangerment... the Roe decision may rank almost as high as "it's the economy, stupid" for right-leaners who are moderates on abortion choice, especially as the fed's rate hikes sink in a bit more, and if the employment rate does continue to hold up ok despite remaining inflationary pressures.

The right-wing of the GOP managed to get the Supreme Court of their dreams. But now that they’ve actually started making rulings, it turns out even many conservatives don’t like the results.

There’s a huge difference between saying “I’m pro-life” and actually making abortion illegal. That huge difference is already having dire consequences for the GOP. How will they navigate it? Will they support a compromise bill in Congress that basically returns us to a Roe v Wade situation? If they do, will they lose all their pro-life voters? I think they are going to suffer at the ballot box as a result of their 50-year embrace of the pro-life movement. It was never that popular (about 25%), but it was a wedge issue that got those 25% of people to reliably show up. Now, those folks got what they wanted, and will lose energy. Meanwhile, many others are angry that their rights have been taken away, and are already showing how energized they are in Kansas.

If Trump runs again, the GOP will have 2 strikes against them: the highly unpopular SCOTUS decisions and a disgraced mad king still standing at the top of the ticket. I feel like they’d have a hard time overcoming both of those obstacles in 2024.

 

[P___X]

He simply stirs up too much emotion from both sides. Picks fights he doesn't need to pick and keeps old ones going too long.

It will be interesting to see where history ranks him in 100 years when no one is around to remember his tone, but only has the results to look at.

His best achievement was that he didn't immediately break the economy trends he inherited from the second Obama term.

 

[SouprMatt]

It will be interesting to see where history ranks him in 100 years when no one is around to remember his tone, but only has the results to look at.

I wonder how many times in the next 100 years a president will allow (nay, encourage) a violent mob to break into the U.S. Capitol building, and do nothing about it for hours. We protected our Capitol pretty well from 1812 (last time it was breached en masse... by the Brits) to 2021, so I’m guessing Jan 6 will stand out in history. If it doesn’t, and violent mobs routinely break into the Capitol? It probably won’t be “American” history that is discussed 100 years from now.

 

[P___X]

Abortion Restrictions Could Cause an Ob-Gyn Brain Drain

With Roe v. Wade overturned, banning abortion in many states could lead to a large number of ob-gyns avoiding practicing there or failing to receive crucial medical training

www.scientificamerican.com

Correct. Let's add that except for TX and FL, these are the same states that had never been the most competitive to recruit physicians even before 2022.

 

[P___X]

I wonder how many times in the next 100 years a president will allow (nay, encourage) a violent mob to break into the U.S. Capitol building, and do nothing about it for hours. We protected our Capitol pretty well from 1812 (last time it was breached en masse... by the Brits) to 2021, so I’m guessing Jan 6 will stand out in history. If it doesn’t, and violent mobs routinely break into the Capitol? It probably won’t be “American” history that is discussed 100 years from now.

You're probably right about this. For example EPA is definitely not the first thing we think of when Nixon's name comes up.

 

[SouprMatt]

You're probably right about this. For example EPA is definitely not the first thing we think of when Nixon's name comes up.

Exactly. If we think of the “historic” occurrences of 2017-2021, COVID-19 and the Capitol breach are two items pretty much guaranteed to make the history books. Neither are a good look for Trump.

 

[lizkat]

He simply stirs up too much emotion from both sides. Picks fights he doesn't need to pick and keeps old ones going too long.

It will be interesting to see where history ranks him in 100 years when no one is around to remember his tone, but only has the results to look at.

Could go either way, and probably largely depends on the Rs' pick of a successor, assuming they're smart enough to realize enough was enough. Not everything Trump did in terms of policy was bad for the country, even Democrats (some of them) will admit. The cost of those accomplishments though in terms of effect on the fabric of our society has seemed pretty high in at least the short term.

I wonder how many times in the next 100 years a president will allow (nay, encourage) a violent mob to break into the U.S. Capitol building, and do nothing about it for hours. We protected our Capitol pretty well from 1812 (last time it was breached en masse... by the Brits) to 2021, so I’m guessing Jan 6 will stand out in history. If it doesn’t, and violent mobs routinely break into the Capitol? It probably won’t be “American” history that is discussed 100 years from now.

He's never going to get good marks from historians on leadership in crisis... not during the 1/6 insurrection, not other instances of political violence, not resolution of immigration issues (admittedly a both sides problem)...

One possibly valuable and direct if costly insight that Trump has given us is that autocracy in practice is a bridge way too far into the so-called "unitary executive" theory, even for many Americans who have in the past favored a strong executive branch. There was apparently an assumption there that the strong exec would be a staunch defender of the Constitution, not someone hellbent on pushing the envelope of his brief at every turn.

You're probably right about this. For example EPA is definitely not the first thing we think of when Nixon's name comes up.

Trump has likely given Nixon a little boost in rankings of American presidents. Even gotta love how the national archives are gong to contain so many instances of Trump literally having hand-shredded official government documents that landed on his desk and met with his displeasure. Staff aware of the documents retention laws patiently fished them from the trash and taped them back together...

 

[SouprMatt]

Staff aware of the documents retention laws patiently fished them from the trash and taped them back together...

That would be a really interesting artifact in the Archives - taped-together documents from the administration. I wonder if they have anything similar from prior Presidents. Surely Trump isn’t the first to attempt document destruction.

 

[lizkat]

That would be a really interesting artifact in the Archives - taped-together documents from the administration. I wonder if they have anything similar from prior Presidents. Surely Trump isn’t the first to attempt document destruction.

Well apparently now there are also photos of Trump's other way of trying to express total displeasure with this or that document.... past shredding. Next stop: toilet bowl. Yeah.

Surprise: Trump Lied About His Nasty Little Toilet-Clogging Habit

The toilet lies have hit the skids.

www.vanityfair.com

 

[Herdfan]

The right-wing of the GOP managed to get the Supreme Court of their dreams. But now that they’ve actually started making rulings, it turns out even many conservatives don’t like the results.

There’s a huge difference between saying “I’m pro-life” and actually making abortion illegal. That huge difference is already having dire consequences for the GOP. How will they navigate it? Will they support a compromise bill in Congress that basically returns us to a Roe v Wade situation? If they do, will they lose all their pro-life voters? I think they are going to suffer at the ballot box as a result of their 50-year embrace of the pro-life movement. It was never that popular (about 25%), but it was a wedge issue that got those 25% of people to reliably show up. Now, those folks got what they wanted, and will lose energy. Meanwhile, many others are angry that their rights have been taken away, and are already showing how energized they are in Kansas.

I would like to see a Federal Law codifying it. But it has to be absolute. For example 20-24 weeks like most of the EU and states can't move that number either way. Exceptions for life of the mother. Make both sides a bit unhappy.

 

[lizkat]

I would like to see a Federal Law codifying it. But it has to be absolute. For example 20-24 weeks like most of the EU and states can't move that number either way. Exceptions for life of the mother. Make both sides a bit unhappy.

It really is high time that Congress got back to its members more routinely working across the aisle for national benefit. That does take compromise, as opposed to chamber leadership threats to block, insistence on party-line votes, refusal to permit cross-party bill sponsorship and so on. Unfortunately, gerrymandering in redistricting taken to absurd extremes makes it more difficult every ten years for House members to compromise in development of legislation.

 

[ronntaylor]

While the Dems need to lay the groundwork for 2024, the 2022 midterms should be the key focus. It's going to be a nail-biter for both chambers and the GOP will do everything and anything to capture at least the House.

I'm confident that the Dems will keep the Senate and may even pick up 2 or more seats -- PA and OH are good chances. And even WI if we keep a close eye on the Rethugicans/GQP shenanigans.

The House isn't a lost cause and the Dems have a good shot of keeping control. There's just too much time left before the general (~90 days) and too many unknowns for my tastes.

 

[lizkat]

While the Dems need to lay the groundwork for 2024, the 2022 midterms should be the key focus. It's going to be a nail-biter for both chambers and the GOP will do everything and anything to capture at least the House.

I'm confident that the Dems will keep the Senate and may even pick up 2 or more seats -- PA and OH are good chances. And even WI if we keep a close eye on the Rethugicans/GQP shenanigans.

The House isn't a lost cause and the Dems have a good shot of keeping control. There's just too much time left before the general (~90 days) and too many unknowns for my tastes.

I'm freaked out about GOP efforts to try to enable derailing state certification of counts they don't like in November. They aren't hiding intention there, since already exercising those new legislative muscles in some primaries.

 

[SouprMatt]

While the Dems need to lay the groundwork for 2024, the 2022 midterms should be the key focus. It's going to be a nail-biter for both chambers and the GOP will do everything and anything to capture at least the House.

I'm confident that the Dems will keep the Senate and may even pick up 2 or more seats -- PA and OH are good chances. And even WI if we keep a close eye on the Rethugicans/GQP shenanigans.

The House isn't a lost cause and the Dems have a good shot of keeping control. There's just too much time left before the general (~90 days) and too many unknowns for my tastes.

The Republicans are getting assists from gerrymandering, then further assists from Trump-appointed judges who refused to overturn the most egregious examples, breaking with long-standing precedent. So when it comes to the House, they have an unfair advantage. That being said, they are so unpopular due to their insane candidates and terrible policies, the gerrymandering might not be enough to put them over the top. The pro-abortion vote in Kansas has Republicans scared and Democrats energized. I hope it keeps going that way into November!

If the Democrats make abortion the biggest issue of 2022, they could overcome the usual midterm slump.

 

[ronntaylor]

I'm freaked out about GOP efforts to try to enable derailing state certification of counts they don't like in November. They aren't hiding intention there, since already exercising those new legislative muscles in some primaries.

That's my biggest worry, what the creeps do after the elections. They will amp up the craziness you've just mentioned.

 

[ronntaylor]

The pro-abortion vote in Kansas has Republicans scared and Democrats energized. I hope it keeps going that way into November!

That vote gives a little more hope. Just hope the voters don't fall asleep or allow some nonsense to distract them (see last year's CRT BS).