2024 US Election thread

[SouprMatt]

Biden sabotaging Kamala's chances from beyond the grave:

Biden clarifies 'garbage' comment after fresh US election row

The president is accused of denigrating Trump supporters - but says he was only attacking one comedian's remarks.

www.bbc.com

Trump loves attacking Biden. But it’s been obvious for a while now that such attacks are an absolute waste of his time. Nobody cares about a lame duck president. The guys in Congress figured that out quick, never mentioning Hunter Biden again since the day Biden announced he wasn’t running for a 2nd term.

 

[SouprMatt]

Seen this?
So are we talking social security, medicare, higher taxes - what?

"We have to reduce spending to live within our means..." says the guy who has never had to reduce his spending in his life.

Personally, I'd like to see the billionaires endure some hardship.

The man who cannot abide somebody posting the location of his private jet, thinks OTHERS need to suffer through hardship?

This is as bad as “Let them eat cake.”

 

[Pumbaa]

The man who cannot abide somebody posting the location of his private jet, thinks OTHERS need to suffer through hardship?

This is as bad as “Let them eat cake.”

Musk: “I believe in the teachings of Christ. I believe in the Christian principles.”

Probably means that OTHERS should turn the other cheek etc.

 

[P___X]

Trump loves attacking Biden. But it’s been obvious for a while now that such attacks are an absolute waste of his time. Nobody cares about a lame duck president. The guys in Congress figured that out quick, never mentioning Hunter Biden again since the day Biden announced he wasn’t running for a 2nd term.

Yeah I saw that on r/Consevative and my first thought was, you guys need to touch some grass because not even pretendependents care to pretend they care about this one.

Seen this?
So are we talking social security, medicare, higher taxes - what?

"We have to reduce spending to live within our means..." says the guy who has never had to reduce his spending in his life.

Personally, I'd like to see the billionaires endure some hardship.

View attachment 1630

I've seen the very first Trump 2024 sign in my city yesterday. It was in the window of an assisted care facility...

 

[lizkat]

Musk: “I believe in the teachings of Christ. I believe in the Christian principles.”

Probably means that OTHERS should turn the other cheek etc.

Elon, wow. Forgiveness? The Don gonna be all up in your face on that one.

An endless cycle of retribution is precisely what Donald Trump aims for. To him just the prospect of retribution in a Trump 2.0 administration apparently remains a high form of personal entertainment while he fidgets through the countdown to his imagined coronation next January.

He loved setting his own aides against each other while he was prez. But what he plans for a Trump 2.0? My oh my, and with military trappings galore.

While he was in office, Trump liked to sandbag or sandblast at random the assorted loyalists who worked for him, or White House correspondents unlucky enough to catch him on a slow day, taking any opportunity to fashion a streamable grudge match out of thin air, or to get back at staffers for taking a position Trump disliked but had earlier egged them into adopting. The insanity! Whatever it took to keep a fresh batch of storm clouds rolling in. He could hardly wait to see the clips of chaos and near mayhem roll out on Fox. No one should have been surprised he watched TV for hours on 1/6.

That former guy remains a world class lunatic, even if Elon often seems worthy competition for that title. Does Musk not ever listen to what his dancing buddy says in some of those rallies or write on social media?

The other night in Atlanta, Trump was ranting about what a terrible state America is in, then suddenly he's moving his hands as if steering a car, wondering aloud about gee what if Marjorie Taylor Greene is rolling down the highway in a "hydrogen car" and something happens and boom, see, she's not even recognizable... tragic, not even recognizable, see, yeah.

And people in the rally were all like... ? waiting for "and so..." or "but see" or some kind of wrap to all that, something to do with energy policy or whatever? and he just stood there for a bit, sort of like he was mentally reviewing video clips of the fantasized catastrophe he'd just hatched out.

Me, watching a clip of the rally, I was wondering what MTG had ever said that made Trump plant an imaginary car wreck in her future. I assume she'd been on the stage at some point in the rally. Or maybe it was just being in Georgia made him paranoid. He needs the state and tried to steal it last time and lordy there's a tape of that phone call and...

Trump wants to win to avoid lawful prosecution for alleged crimes. But being Trump, he imagines applying "retribution" to those who have tried to bring him to justice, cross him or dim any spotlight that he believes belongs on him alone. If I were Elon I'd head back to one of my offices before the magic breaks in this odd relationship. Trump's not a turn the other cheek kinda guy. And I have no clue what Elon's playing at really.

 

[Pumbaa]

And I have no clue what Elon's playing at really.

More money, more power?

No taxes. Deregulate his businesses. Extort foreign countries to give his companies carte blanche.

 

[lizkat]

More money, more power?

No taxes. Deregulate his businesses. Extort foreign countries to give his companies carte blanche.

Elon would probably do better to have given red state GOP House campaign committees the money he has given or promised to Trump. The Don is all over the map on policy and Elon could never be sure that he'd be the last man in the Oval Office whispering into Trump's ear before any given policy rollout.

At least the House Rs know what they want, which is to obstruct, obstruct, obstruct regulations, disbursements and, uh ditch fine print about ethics, conflicts of interests and oh maybe annoying stuff like most sections of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Meanwhile Trump's daughter-in-law Lara (Eric's wife) sits atop the Republican National Committee as co-chair (and having sworn that "every last penny" of contributions to the RNC will go towards electing Trump president).

So the state GOP chairs are the ones having to fund-raise for congressional races. The chance of busting into the RNC's coffers for that purpose are likely slim to zilch.

Personally I sure hope the Ds take back the House. Time for Johnson and the barn burners and their not all that moderate pals in the larger GOP conference to take the back benches for awhile. They just don't know how to govern, and with their habit of clowning around and refusing to pass budget bills, they endanger the US economy via risk of default on our obligations.

 

[P___X]

Let me provide a little premature analysis on what to be expected, because there's just way too much hopium floating around. Plus, since this forum's reach is limited I won't influence results. Now that we have over one third of expected voters already cast their ballots here's what we can and here's what we can't take as signs. I'll make a few, in my opinion not too wild, speculative guesses. One is that cross voting will slightly favor Harris up to a net 1-2% and independents will distribute evenly between Dems/Reps and Independents. Also, women will slightly favor Harris (again 1-3%), and the 18-29 folk will also favor Harris at a much higher (but unpredictable) margin. So..

1. Would FL or TX turn blue? Very unlikely, even the early voting data shows GOP/DNC ratio of 45%/34% in FL, and 52%/37% in TX. Same thing for Kansas where it's 50%/36%.
2. NV and AZ aren't looking promising at all: it's 40/35 Reps in NV and 42/35% in AZ. Not looking good.
4. In MI, third party inputed data shows at about 40% votes cast 47% to 42% favoring Dems with presumably significantly higher female voter turnout thus far (it's 45% to 29% but 26% unknown). So I'd say MI is unpredictable but no alarming signs yet and people seem to be showing up handsomely.
5. In WI it's 42% to 35% favoring dems, but this is inputed data, meaning, I wouldn't rely too much on it. Whereas the sex data showing a 51:43 female predominance is encouraging. 40% turnout thus far (relative to 2020) is also encouraging for Dems.
6. PA is mail in ballots only to date, and I think the processing is not real-time at all. 1.5M received of the 7.5M voter population. All I could say about PA is the 58% to 32% ratio with the mail in, is thus far very encouraging, but inconclusive. That said, Trump "truthing" about Dems cheating in PA suggests he's in trouble there already.

7. GA is far more interesting. They already have a 65% turnout (!!!) relative to 2020, voting is essentially in-person only, and per inputed data it's a 48% to 45% ratio based on party registration....BUT it's a 56% to 44% female to male ratio.
8. NC is the most interesting and this is where I actually expect some surprises. In NC a lot of people don't register with a party because the lists are fully public. Here, it's a 34% to 33% favoring Reps, whereas 33% is labeled independent. So I'd consider this toe-to-toe...but! Female to male ratio is 55% vs 44% and their turnout is already 72% that of 2020 (!!!!), practically all in person.
9. Besides the off-the chart high in-person turnout in NC and GA they have one more unusual thing they share, NC has 11% and GA has 10% of early voters in the 18-29 group. National average thus far is 8% including the other battleground states where it's also 8% or lower.

My take? Mostly too early to tell, but NV/AZ will go red, WI is underperforming per my perceptions, PA is too early to tell but no alarms there thus far, MI is where I expected it thus far, and GA and NC have an off-the-chart high in-person turnout including women and young people. Statistically, I suspect one of the two will go blue and ultimately PA will decide.

 

[Pumbaa]

Elon would probably do better to have given red state GOP House campaign committees the money he has given or promised to Trump. The Don is all over the map on policy and Elon could never be sure that he'd be the last man in the Oval Office whispering into Trump's ear before any given policy rollout.

At least the House Rs know what they want, which is to obstruct, obstruct, obstruct regulations, disbursements and, uh ditch fine print about ethics, conflicts of interests and oh maybe annoying stuff like most sections of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Meanwhile Trump's daughter-in-law Lara (Eric's wife) sits atop the Republican National Committee as co-chair (and having sworn that "every last penny" of contributions to the RNC will go towards electing Trump president).

So the state GOP chairs are the ones having to fund-raise for congressional races. The chance of busting into the RNC's coffers for that purpose are likely slim to zilch.

Personally I sure hope the Ds take back the House. Time for Johnson and the barn burners and their not all that moderate pals in the larger GOP conference to take the back benches for awhile. They just don't know how to govern, and with their habit of clowning around and refusing to pass budget bills, they endanger the US economy via risk of default on our obligations.

You are using far too much logic. Elon wants the attention. He needs the attention. Having stupid MAGAs worshipping him is perfect for him.

Not sure if he believes he can influence/control Trump like Putin & Co. can or if he has made a deal with Vance. In either case he has hinted about being in huge legal trouble if Harris wins so it is entirely possible that he is after a presidential pardon.

 

[shadow puppet]

2. NV and AZ aren't looking promising at all: it's 40/35 Reps in NV and 42/35% in AZ. Not looking good.

These are the two that have me the most concerned. After watching the news last night my hope continues to fade. I really hope I'm wrong though.

 

[P___X]

These are the two that have me the most concerned. After watching the news last night my hope continues to fade. I really hope I'm wrong though.

Thanks to the electoral college some of the probabilities aren't linear. On one hand winning MI/WI/PA are sorta linked, but harris has 4 other not-too-outlandish (and 2 other outlandish) winning combos without AZ and NV.

Harris can win through
- MI/WI/PA
- NC/WI/PA
- GA/WI/PA
- NC/MI/PA
- GA/MI/PA
- (GA/NC/PA)
- (GA/NC/MI)

 

[shadow puppet]

Thanks to the electoral college some of the probabilities aren't linear. On one hand winning MI/WI/PA are sorta linked, but harris has 4 other not-too-outlandish (and 2 other outlandish) winning combos without AZ and NV.

Harris can win through
- MI/WI/PA
- NC/WI/PA
- GA/WI/PA
- NC/MI/PA
- GA/MI/PA
- (GA/NC/PA)
- (GA/NC/MI)

Thank you for the hope. I'm trying to believe but it's hard with all the MAGA crazies. I keep thinking it will be a repeat of the Hillary/Trump election where she won the popular but he got the electoral votes. 🙁

 

[P___X]

Thank you for the hope. I'm trying to believe but it's hard with all the MAGA crazies. I keep thinking it will be a repeat of the Hillary/Trump election where she won the popular but he got the electoral votes. 🙁

As a researcher, I love the unknown, hate the unpredictability. Too much unpredictable here....

BTW, looking at all the states, Iowa is the only "non-battleground" I see dems to have even a mathematical chance.


About nearly a third of active voters cast their ballots already and 3% favor of dems. Though in reality they have 476K registered dems, 643K Reps and 475K Independents.

That said that would take way too much independent sway to favor Harris.

 

[Jay Mysteri0]

Pt 1 of stupid election shit

Duval Dems confirm voters confronted by 18-year-old with machete in Neptune Beach are Harris supporters

An 18-year-old now faces an aggravated assault charge after the Neptune Beach Police Department said he “brandished a machete” in an armed disturbance incident.

www.news4jax.com

NEPTUNE BEACH, Fla. – News4JAX has learned that an 18-year-old, who now faces an aggravated assault charge after police said he “brandished a machete” to intimidate voters, is a registered Republican.

Duval County Democratic Party Chair Daniel Henry responded to the incident in Neptune Beach and confirmed that the voters who were confronted by the teen with the machete were waving Harris-Walz signs.

“This troubling act of intimidation was met with a swift response from the Neptune Beach Police Department, who arrived within minutes to assess and de-escalate the situation,” Henry said in a statement.

According to Neptune Beach Chief of Police Michael Key, around 4 p.m. on Tuesday a group of seven juveniles and one adult came to the Jacksonville Public Library Beaches Branch with “ill intentions to cause a disturbance.”

He said the group drove up, parked their vehicle and started antagonizing early voters. Police said only that they were protesting “the opposing political group.”

Henry said the young men were carrying Trump flags when they “confronted peaceful Harris-Walz sign wavers exercising their First Amendment rights.”

Police said the situation escalated to a verbal disturbance, and according to Key, Caleb Williams aggressively brandished a machete toward two women, ages 71 and 54 years old.

The women called the police, and no one was harmed.

“We commend the Neptune Beach Police for their prompt response, which helped ensure the safety of our community members,” Henry said.

Police found a machete with an 18-inch blade in plain view in the bed of a truck Williams was standing next to, and one of the women had taken a photo of Williams approaching her with the machete over his head.

The photo and machete were taken into evidence

I will ask for the sake of continuity, since it was pointed out how the police managed to deescalate the situation. I wonder how this would have turned out if the 18 year old with the Machete was Black? 🤔

 

[Jay Mysteri0]

Pt 2 of stupid election shit

This one involves a republican proving claims about lack of election integrity, by...

Ex-Republican Candidate Has Bonkers Defense for Stealing Ballots

The failed candidate couldn’t even interfere in the election right.

newrepublic.com

After pocketing the ballots, Savage leaned over to a woman streaming the event on Facebook Live, telling her that there was a “fucked-up count.” Upon exiting, Savage approached a man outside the government facility and showed him the ballots in his pocket before the unidentified man patted him on his back.

After Savage left, the woman confronted election officials about whether they were missing any ballots, reported Fox59. Savage then joined the woman’s livestream, commenting via his account “Cardkiller57” that the facility was “3 ballots short.”

“Dontvtake [sic] anything,” Savage wrote in another comment.

Ironically, Savage had framed himself as a champion of election integrity in online forums.

When questioned by police, Savage admitted that he had taken the ballots but claimed that a woman at the facility had given him permission to do so. He insisted that he “wasn’t trying to steal from nobody.”

After being confronted with evidence revealing that he had never asked for permission to take the ballots, Savage admitted that he had lied.

It's going to be a crazy election season, and we're just getting started.

 

[P___X]

It's hilarious to see the "fuck your feelings", "lets go Brandon" folk trying so hard to get offended about being called trashy 🤣 🤣 🤣

 

[P___X]

some heartening data from GA:

Loading…

sos.ga.gov

GenZ showing up to vote early, beating Millennials is very good sign. These kids are on their way to earn my respect in GA.

 

[P___X]

That just reeks of a desperate attempt to try for another Hilary's "deplorable" comment.

So called "victims" seeking to justify playing the victim. After spending the night yukking it up over comments like the current VP who is a woman of color, has "pimp handlers".

Let's be honest, if you went to racist con & laughed at the Rogan's apprentice's roast humor... well... They can sit their tired asses down on their white sheets & suck up people calling out their stench.

After all, that side needs to minimize the fallout from there, and the following day's comments at a press where people were expecting distancing from the candidate.

Instead, he called he night a "love fest".

If I shot myself in both feet, while aiming at my opponent, I'd be looking for any excuses too.

Another, pragmatic viewpoint on this: people primed to get triggered by the slight implication of acting of poor taste/judgement are already MAGAs. Net gain = 0.
Calling the island of origin of a diaspora garbage will activate otherwise lenient, or dormant people. Net gain = negative tens of thousands at the least.

Also this driving a MAGA garbage truck shtick is just another, they think it's a great jab vs we think it's finally on brand kind of disconnect. No matter the outcome of the election, it won't age the way they hope.

 

[Pumbaa]

Lovely headline: ”JD Vance Offended by Biden a Day After Complaining About Americans Getting Offended”…

JD Vance Offended by Biden a Day After Complaining About Americans Getting Offended

Americans need to “stop getting so offended at every little thing,” Vance said a day before calling Biden’s comments on Trump’s rally “disgusting.”

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Huntn]

Project 2025 has a plan for the Naval Academy. You should worry.

Deep within Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s 925-page roadmap for the next Republican president, its authors say they want the service academies scrubbed of anything and anyone deemed insufficiently pure of thought.

www.thebaltimorebanner.com

From a Twitter post:
Rep. Nick LaLota, running for reelection in up-for-grabs NY-01, was one of the signers of this letter, demanding an explanation from the Naval Academy for inviting NYU historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat to give a history department lecture, after pressure from Heritage Foundation