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Rigged Elections in Georgia

SouprMatt

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This discussion is not about the state in the US, but the nation near Russia.

It appears that the ruling party has rigged things to stay in power. They say they didn’t, but it’s pretty hard to believe when they bring in Viktor Orban the day after announcing the results. There were also many warnings about Russians paying people to vote before the election.

I know we have some people here that know a lot more about this than I do, so I’d like to know: was this election likely rigged? What was the situation with international observers?

@Scepticalscribe I believe you know a lot about these things, and I hope to learn something from your experience and expertise.

I have feelings about this because there is a small Georgian Orthodox community in my neighborhood; they are lovely people, and even made an amazing meal as a thank you for our church that gave them a place to worship.
 
Orbán seemed awfully speedy with his congratulations.

IMG_1855.jpeg

I saw a post from someone who claimed to have analyzed the vote distributions and allegedly spotted inconsistencies with the rural votes indicating ballot stuffing or similar. If I find it again and it seems to hold up to scrutiny I will post a link. Until then, I suggest a grain truckload of salt.
 
Orbán seemed awfully speedy with his congratulations.

View attachment 1622

I saw a post from someone who claimed to have analyzed the vote distributions and allegedly spotted inconsistencies with the rural votes indicating ballot stuffing or similar. If I find it again and it seems to hold up to scrutiny I will post a link. Until then, I suggest a grain truckload of salt.
Don't overthink it, LOL. Orbán's gonna congratulate trump on Nov 5 too, no matter what the outcome.😀
 
Georgia: Joint Statement by the High Representative Josep Borrell and the European Commission on the Parliamentary elections

 
This discussion is not about the state in the US, but the nation near Russia.

It appears that the ruling party has rigged things to stay in power. They say they didn’t, but it’s pretty hard to believe when they bring in Viktor Orban the day after announcing the results. There were also many warnings about Russians paying people to vote before the election.

I know we have some people here that know a lot more about this than I do, so I’d like to know: was this election likely rigged? What was the situation with international observers?

@Scepticalscribe I believe you know a lot about these things, and I hope to learn something from your experience and expertise.

I have feelings about this because there is a small Georgian Orthodox community in my neighborhood; they are lovely people, and even made an amazing meal as a thank you for our church that gave them a place to worship.
I meant to get back to you about this but was distracted by other (more recent and more troubling) elections.

More to the point, my gut instinct (I spent two years - 2008-2010 - in Georgia, arriving there mere weeks after their conflict with Russia - with the EU where I held a senior analytical position in the EU mission, and two years after that, I returned there for a number of months while holding a senior position as an international election observer for the elections of 2012, the election that brought Georgian Dream to office and power) is that matters may be a bit more nuanced than has been reported, and I would be reluctant to pass (any sort of definitive) judgment until I find out more about what actually happened.

In any case, a colleague of mine - with whom I served in Afghanistan (and whose sense of how things are I respect and trust) - has spent the past two months observing the Georgian election in a senior capacity with the OSCE, and has now returned home. I expect to meet him for coffee next week, and shall return to this thread after our chat.
 
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I meant to get back to you about this but was distracted by other (more recent and more troubling) elections.

More to the point, my gut instinct (I spent two years - 2008-2010 - in Georgia, arriving there weeks after their conflict with Russia - with the EU where I held a senior analytical position in the EU mission, and two years after that, I was back there for a number of months in a senior position as an international election observer for the elections of 2012, the election that brought Georgian Dream to office and power) is that matters may be a bit more nuanced than has been reported, and I would be reluctant to pass (any sort of definitive) judgment until I find out more about what actually happened.

In any case, a colleague of mine - with whom I served in Afghanistan - was there observing the Georgian election in a senior capacity, and has now returned home. I expect to meet him for coffee next week, and shall return to this thread after our chat.
I look forward to hearing more about this. I hope you enjoy your coffee together!
 
@SouprMatt; @Pumbaa; @P___X, and, indeed, anyone else who may find this of interest:

My friend who had observed the elections in Georgia (a retired Army officer) cancelled our original coffee appointment, (he had to attend a funeral); however, (eventually) we managed to meet and enjoyed a most pleasant lunch in a lovely, Regency building (a gloriously worn and slightly crooked wooden floor, sash windows, high ceilings, mismatched chairs), beside the river, close to the Courthouse, where we had a terrific chat, and found ourselves pretty much in agreement.

Earlier, he had spent some years in Georgia with the EU, is knowledgeable about the country, and I would trust his take, his judgment, and his sense of what is happening.

Anyway, my original comment still stands: This is considerably more nuanced than has been reported.

As an aside, I really detest these click-baiting, drama-seeking (and invariably uninformed) headlines, shouting a simplistic (and uninformed) and usually completely crude conclusion based on the most spurious evidence.

The election was not "rigged", not in the classical sense. However, this does not necessarily mean (and nor does it exclude the possibility) that the authorities did not abuse their advantageous position with a view to seeking to consolidate their political power.

Nevertheless, this sort of hysterical headline overlooks (or conveniently ignores) a few salient points which are worth noting, or taking into consideration, when one gives (serious) thought to the outcome of the Georgian election, rather than rushing to label it "rigged".

Firstly, are the numerous roles that have been played by Mikheil Saakashvili (who is, yes, currently behind bars in Georgia), and who has been described as a "divisive" individual; notwithstanding the fact that he is currently behind bars, he is still viewed as one of the most influential political actors in the country, and is thought to still wield considerable influence in the UNM (United National Movement - his political party, at present one of the main opposition groups in Georgia).

Secondly, is the memory of the brief (yet traumatic) conflict of 2008: According to the report the EU released a year after the conflict (the Tagliavini Report), in essence, Georgia started the war (yes, they were provoked, but also, yes, they started it), while the Russian response was deemed disproportionate and excessive.

Put another way, from a military perspective, Georgia were not just defeated, but were destroyed. The recent war in Ukraine has brought that period back sharply into focus in people's minds, if not in some of the more moronic western reporting of the election.

Now, it may be worth noting that Mr Saakashvili was President of Georgia during that conflict, (and again, I will remind you that he actually started that conflict - my personal view, or sense, is that he thought that the west would support him, and hoped to railroad them into doing so) he has also, more recently, held positions in Ukraine (it is of interest that Ukraine was one of the places where he had actually studied as a student - the US - Colombia - was another) that were deemed quite controversial. Moreover, he enjoys exceptionally close (if sometimes, controversial), ties with Ukraine, and is very supportive of President Zelensky.

More to the point, Georgians - who do view themselves as culturally western (a view that I, personally, sometimes take profound issue with - in rural areas, this is an extraordinarily repressive and patriarchal society; once you drive around 50km outside Tbilisi, both distance and time are traversed, and, in some rural regions, it is as though you have travelled back several centuries in time), and support the idea of (eventual) EU membership, are not so much ambivalent about NATO membership as downright conflicted, not least as the outcome (of the war in Ukraine) is not clear, and they do not wish to be on the receiving end of (yet) another Russian "special military operation".

There is currently a war in Ukraine, (which Georgia, and Georgians, are following closely; and yes, Ukraine did support Georgia - politically - strongly both in 2003-2004 - the "colour" revolutions - the Rose and Orange 'revolutions", and again, offered robust support after 2008), but they, themselves, were militarily annihilated and comprehensively defeated when they faced the same enemy that Ukraine is currently fighting; thus, in other words, without it being explicitly stated, Saakashvili's judgment may be considered questionable, which means that returning him (and his party) to power may not necessarily be in Georgia's best interests.

And thirdly, this overlooks entirely the utterly intemperate tone in which political debate is carried out in Georgia. Street demonstrations - and disputing electoral outcomes - are almost standard, de rigueur, and considered normal for that polity and society. In my time there, I found it - the intemperate tone and tenor of much of what passed for political debate - extraordinarily tiresome.

Almost the first (not, note, the last) insult that a surprising number of political leaders addressing their supporters (by way of attacking their political opponents) tended to reach for, was "Hitler", (not "Stalin", who was, after all, the local boy made good), which inevitably begged the question of where one could go if one sought to verbally escalate the argument before violence broke out (or was encouraged to do so).

Thus, for the opposition to shout about "rigged" elections is exactly what passes for normal discourse in that society.

Notwithstanding the above, as I may have mentioned earlier, that does not - in any way - excuse or exculpate the Government, whom I do believe sought to press (if not abuse) every advantage they had (the practice of clientelism was both very pronounced and very prevalent in some of the rural parts of the country, for example), in order to secure electoral victory.

Moreover, the incumbent Government (and their sinister eminence grise, Bidzina Ivanishvili), are also caught on the horns of a dilemma; they, themselves, may be passionately pro-Russian and may well wish to tilt Georgia - politically - back into the orbit of the former superpower, but the electorate is not - not remotely - pro-Russian, and has no desire to return to that past (unlike - and in stark contrast to - some of the inhabitants of eastern Ukraine, for example).
 
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Ouch.

I have just read that the PM in Georgia (which is where power lies, whereas the pro-EU president, Salome Zurabichvili - one of the country's "big" political beasts , or actors - occupies an office that used to enjoy extensive powers in President Saakashvili's time, but is now mainly ceremonial) has announced that Georgia is suspending talks on (future) EU accession until 2028 (i.e. preferably, never).

The inevitable (explosive) demonstrations - this time, wholly justified - have followed in Rustaveli Avenue (the main street in Tbilisi, where the Parliament, the Opera House, the National Museum and the Tbilisi Marriott Hotel, which served great coffee and a terrific Sunday brunch, and indeed, the best bookshop in Georgia - five of my favourite haunts in my time there - are all to be found).

Anyway, the problem with demonstrations in Georgia is that, because absolutely everything leads to demonstrations, and high drama on the streets, it can be difficult at times to draw a distinction between demonstrations that are the result of a genuine grievance, expressing outrage, demonstrations that are a result of a summoned rent-a-crowd, or hired claque, or demonstrations that are simply a refusal to accept a policy initiative (or election outcome), and Georgia has a history, or tradition, of challenging elections, from the genuine, to the downright dubious (challenging a fraudulent election was how Mikheil Saakashvili had initially come to power, after all).

I will offer the suggestion that while the election itself was clearly deeply flawed, (I think to argue "rigged" still sounds excessive), I am not so sure that the outcome would have been much different (for the reasons I outlined in my earlier post, namely, Saakashvili's questionable judgment and his close ties with Ukraine) - although it may have been tighter - had the election not been flawed.

Moreover, I will offer the further observation that while the liberal elite - the educated, urban, cosmopolitan, middle-class, liberal elite - in Tbilisi, who are - or, tend to be - pro-EU, modern, progressive - Tbilisi has an amazingly vibrant creative arts scene - voted strongly against the government, the vast swathes that comprise the regions of rural Georgia (for a vast variety of reasons, clientelism, government promises, self-interest, dislike of what are considered 'western' values, and notions of progressive change - note that neither fear nor coercion were suggested as motivations) did not.

To my mind, the really interesting election is the one that occurred recently in Romania where a previously unknown, right wing, pro-Russian candidate - very unexpectedly and quite improbably - obtained the most votes in the first round (an individual who had clocked around 5% support in opinion polls a suspiciously short while before that).

In Bucharest, their highest court has now ordered a complete recount of all of the votes cast in the first round (and the second round cannot now take place until that happens).
 
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Thanks for all your insights (informed by your longtime friend) on the situation in Georgia. It sounds like the rural/urban divide is a big factor there, similar to the US.

As for street protests, that was fascinating to read, and I followed up to see that yes, they do have quite a history. However, it looks like this time they have reached a new level:


There have also been numerous resignations from the government, and many schools and universities are on strike.

It definitely feels like there is something different this time.
 
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