Syrian President has fled Damascus

[SouprMatt]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

A Syrian Air plane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels, according to data from the Flightradar website.
The aircraft initially flew towards Syria's coastal region, a stronghold of Assad's Alawite sect, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.

Just hours earlier, rebels announced they had gained full control of the key city of Homs after only a day of fighting, leaving Assad's 24-year rule dangling by a thread.
Intense sounds of shooting were heard in the centre of the Damascus, two residents said on Sunday, although it was not immediately clear what the source of the shooting was.

I think it was only a week ago when I heard about rebels suddenly taking back Aleppo. Moving to the capital happened very quickly, and I wonder if the Russian war in Ukraine depleted them so much that they couldn’t help Assad anymore.

 

[SouprMatt]

If Assad truly is deposed, one of Trump’s cabinet picks will have one fewer friend to give secrets to:

Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's top spy pick, faces fresh scrutiny over Syria and Russia positions

Former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard will face tough questions in US Senate confirmation hearings over her past controversies.

www.bbc.com

 

[SouprMatt]

Assad found his way to Moscow

More details from Syria, courtesy of the BBC:

 

[Thomas Veil]

 

[Scepticalscribe]

In this case, given the circumstances, I think that the use of the verb "fled" (rather than the more muted and understated "left") would not be inappropriate.

 

[lizkat]

Looks like the HTS and other opposition groups had been playing the long game, amping up their insurgency plans in recent times when they saw Russia get bogged down over Ukraine, and then Iran trying to figure out what to do as key players in Hamas and Hezbollah were eliminated in Gaza and in Lebanon. With both Iran and Russia having got pretty far out over their skis, Turkey now figures to have more say in what goes on in the region, having backed insurgents (but not the Kurdish forces allied with US). "Interesting times" continue. Israel keeping a wary eye and extra troops along the Golan Heights border.

How the Syrian Opposition Shocked the Assad Regime

A historian explains why U.S. sanctions and Iran and Russia’s entanglements in other wars helped create an opening for rebel groups to overrun the Syrian Army.

www.newyorker.com

Assad’s Downfall Marks a New Realignment in the Middle East (WSJ piece, paywall lifted)

 

[SouprMatt]

Looks like the HTS and other opposition groups had been playing the long game, amping up their insurgency plans in recent times when they saw Russia get bogged down over Ukraine, and then Iran trying to figure out what to do as key players in Hamas and Hezbollah were eliminated in Gaza and in Lebanon. With both Iran and Russia having got pretty far out over their skis, Turkey now figures to have more say in what goes on in the region, having backed insurgents (but not the Kurdish forces allied with US). "Interesting times" continue. Israel keeping a wary eye and extra troops along the Golan Heights border.

How the Syrian Opposition Shocked the Assad Regime

A historian explains why U.S. sanctions and Iran and Russia’s entanglements in other wars helped create an opening for rebel groups to overrun the Syrian Army.

www.newyorker.com

Assad’s Downfall Marks a New Realignment in the Middle East (WSJ piece, paywall lifted)

Very interesting article, thanks. HTS might lead the way, which will be complicated for the US who labeled them a terrorist organization.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Looks like the HTS and other opposition groups had been playing the long game, amping up their insurgency plans in recent times when they saw Russia get bogged down over Ukraine, and then Iran trying to figure out what to do as key players in Hamas and Hezbollah were eliminated in Gaza and in Lebanon. With both Iran and Russia having got pretty far out over their skis, Turkey now figures to have more say in what goes on in the region, having backed insurgents (but not the Kurdish forces allied with US). "Interesting times" continue. Israel keeping a wary eye and extra troops along the Golan Heights border.

How the Syrian Opposition Shocked the Assad Regime

A historian explains why U.S. sanctions and Iran and Russia’s entanglements in other wars helped create an opening for rebel groups to overrun the Syrian Army.

www.newyorker.com

Assad’s Downfall Marks a New Realignment in the Middle East (WSJ piece, paywall lifted)

A fascinating and thoughtful piece, comprehensive, well written and both interesting and thought-provoking; thanks for sharing.

 

[ronntaylor]

Under a self-imposed news blackout. I overheard my husband talking about Iran sending home military personnel and thought it would happen some time this coming week, not a matter of days. Now comes the waiting game: will the insurgents ultimately fight each other? Will they be just a as bad, or worst? Given recent history of dictators being removed/fleeing, I'm not hopeful for Syria. Especially with Erdogan involved against the Kurdish rebels.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Under a self-imposed news blackout. I overheard my husband talking about Iran sending home military personnel and thought it would happen some time this coming week, not a matter of days. Now comes the waiting game: will the insurgents ultimately fight each other? Will they be just a as bad, or worst? Given recent history of dictators being removed/fleeing, I'm not hopeful for Syria. Especially with Erdogan involved against the Kurdish rebels.

And, as a woman, much though I may applaud the overthrow of a dictator who - and with a marked absence of any moral compass - abused appallingly, the considerable power he held and wielded, and cruelly slaughtered, repressed and tortured his own people, - given the dismal recent history of this region when toppling secular tyrants and replacing them with Islamist groups - I do wonder whether the egregious Mr Assad will be supplanted by something a lot worse, at least, as far as the rights of women, and minority ethnic groups, are concerned.

 

[lizkat]

I do wonder whether the egregious Mr Assad will be supplanted by something a lot worse, at least, as far as the rights of women, and minority ethnic groups, are concerned.

The whole thing is a bowl of jelly at the moment, I'd say. Russia losing those warm water ports might not stay "sat well" for long. They are down but not out and might even trade some overblown aspirations re Ukraine for keeping those bases in Syria. Iran credibly and often covertly plays the world's longest game short of the Chinese one, and Turkey's got the pool cue in hand at the moment since is not encumbered by actual wars other than keeping Kurds at bay on both sides of its border with Syria.

Everyone seems to be talking as if the biggest thing is how the militias sort out with each other. Might be more like which ones can at least look like they might get some backing ---any kind of backing-- from external powers including the US (which of course is now at not one but a bunch of forks in the road domestically and otherwise).

Meanwhile Israel and the US seem to be on nearly the same page re first intentions to a) finish off whatever remained of Assad's chemical warfare options and b) trying to keep declared Islamist State groups from becoming a bigger player.

These developments in Syria can't help but remind of how Afghans have invariably united to expel an occupier but when that's done, also invariably fall to squabbling over who gets to run the place.

The post-regime situation in Syria might not be quite as bad, with the expulsion of a dictator. I mean they are all sick of not only Assad but of the civil war itself, the constant chaos of temporary alliances etc., and HTS seems to be taking some lessons from the Americans' debacle in Iraq about not just wiping out the former regime's entire civil structure to leave a vacuum of not only power but expertise in service provision.

But the assorted militia were only politically united in wanting Assad gone. Somehow they managed that lightning -fast advance through critical cities and on to Damascus with HTS apparently leading the maneuvers. It's not clear all their various "what's next?" goals can be subsumed under HTS direction. What he says sounds like a pitch for international support, i.e. the assurances of respect for rights of women and religious minorities including the Alawites. Talk is so cheap, and not all the militia who helped rout Assad's forces are necessarily as "moderate" as HTS claims to be.